Concept Paper India-Pakistan Briefing
Since the division of British India in 1947 into Pakistan and India, the relationship between the two states has been problematic to say the least. The 1971 India-Pakistan war which was concluded with the founding of Bangladesh, and the continuing conflict in Kashmir, troubled the prospects for a stable relationship of the two most powerful states in South-Asia. Much can be gained from a permanent peace-settlement, not in terms of an increase in trade but also to bundle efforts in countering terrorism which will be necessary for the stability of South-Asia.
Kashmir is a pivotal issue in the relations between India and Pakistan, which is since both countries have become nuclear powers a conflict with potential global consequences. These tensions have created an immensely militarized region with India and Pakistan ranking respectively 142 and 119 in terms of per capita income, but first and 10th in terms of arms import.[1] That the Kashmir-conflict is regarded as a purely zero-sum game by both states diminishes the prospects for an easy conclusion of the conflict.
The situation is exacerbated by the involvement of third countries in the power-struggle between India and Pakistan. Not only has the United States has been ambivalent in its position on Kashmir, the war on terror and the conflict between India and Pakistan, China has also been a player in the conflict. China’s has been exporting long-range and ballistic missiles and is also responsible for the first three Pakistani nuclear plants.[2] For China, supporting Pakistan has been part of the strategy of engaging with India to prevent India in asserting its regional hegemony in South-Asia.[3]
Not only Kashmir but also India’s struggle with terrorism long preceding the war on terror and the Mumbai attacks in 2008 again overshadowed the efforts for a peaceful settlement between the two states. In July, after two years refusing to talk, foreign ministers of India and Pakistan will come together in Islamabad to rebuild confidence and trust.[4] One of the major incentives for renewed negotiations is the possible economic gains of a settlement. While India have been growing annually with more than 8% in the past two decades, the internal market is having been generally responsible for this.[5] Export is only 2% of India’s GDP, and Pakistan could be a perfect market for its exports. Moreover Indian entrepreneurs could establish trade connections which could assist Pakistan in relieving it from its development aid dependence.
Finally, a better relationship between India and Pakistan could be of utmost importance in creating stability in Afghanistan. If Pakistan is ‘freed’ from the conflicts on its Eastern-Border it is in better position to control the western tribal regions on the border with Afghanistan. The conclusion of the India-Pakistan conflict could also be a pivotal breakpoint in sustaining internal social stability. Not only will both countries have less incentives for a militarization of their societies, but they will also be able to better cooperate in counter-terrorism on both sides of the border.
Questions:
- How important is the ‘ China Factor’ in India-Pakistan relations? Could China be moved to mediate between India and Pakistan?
- What is the role of the United States and the war on terror in India-Pakistan relations? Will Obama be able to make a breakthrough, and if he willing to?
- Since the EU has been more of a soft-power with less strategic interests in the region, is there an important role for the EU in easing the conflict, and what can the EU do
- Will it make a difference if there should a shift to Track II and III civil society people-to-people exchanges? What role can there be for civil society?
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[1] Mahbubul Haq. 1997. Human Development in South Asia. Human Development Center, Karachi: Oxford University Press.
[2] Mohan Malik. 2000. China and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime. In Contemporary Southeast Asia, 22 (December 2000), 445-78.
[3] Mohan Malik. 2003. The China Factor in the India-Pakistan Conflict. In Parameters (Spring 2003), 35-50
[4] Jim Yeardley. 2010. Indian premier stresses economy and diplomacy. New York Times May 2005. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/25/world/asia/25india.html accessed on 1/06/2010
[5] Akmal Hussain. 2010. A perspective on Peace and Economic Cooperation in South Asia. In Worldbank Report: Promoting Economic Cooperation in South Asia. Washington: Worldbank
